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Item probabilities by position
The source’s Grand Prix probability grid and summary table, with all rank columns preserved.
Edition covered
Original Nintendo DS release. Nintendo Wi-Fi Connection ended on May 20, 2014; local wireless play is separate.
Grand Prix probability table
| Item | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Shell | 22.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Red Shell | — | 27.5% | 20% | 12.5% | 10% | 5% | — | — |
| Banana | 45% | 15% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Fake Item Box | 17.5% | 10% | 5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mushroom | — | 15% | 20% | 22.5% | 20% | 17.5% | 5% | — |
| Triple Mushroom | — | — | 5% | 15% | 27.5% | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Bob-omb | — | 5% | 10% | 10% | 5% | — | — | — |
| Spiny Shell | — | — | — | 5% | 10% | 7.5% | 5% | — |
| Lightning | — | — | — | — | — | 5% | 10% | 22.5% |
| Triple Green Shell | — | 7.5% | 12.5% | 10% | 5% | — | — | — |
| Triple Banana | 15% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Triple Red Shell | — | — | 2.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | — |
| Starman | — | — | — | — | 5% | 12.5% | 20% | 12.5% |
| Golden Mushroom | — | — | — | — | — | 7.5% | 17.5% | 27.5% |
| Bullet Bill | — | — | — | — | — | 5% | 10% | 22.5% |
| Blooper | — | — | 5% | 7.5% | 5% | 2.5% | — | — |
| Boo | — | — | 2.5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2.5% | — |
Probability summary
| Item | Positions obtainable | Total percentage points | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Shell | 4 | 45 | 11.25% |
| Red Shell | 5 | 75 | 15% |
| Banana | 4 | 70 | 17.5% |
| Fake Item Box | 3 | 32.5 | 10.8333333333% |
| Mushroom | 6 | 100 | 16.6666666667% |
| Triple Mushroom | 6 | 127.5 | 21.25% |
| Bob-omb | 4 | 30 | 7.5% |
| Spiny Shell | 4 | 27.5 | 6.875% |
| Lightning | 3 | 37.5 | 12.5% |
| Triple Green Shell | 4 | 35 | 8.75% |
| Triple Banana | 3 | 25 | 8.33333333333% |
| Triple Red Shell | 4 | 20 | 5% |
| Starman | 4 | 50 | 12.5% |
| Golden Mushroom | 3 | 52.5 | 17.5% |
| Bullet Bill | 3 | 37.5 | 12.5% |
| Blooper | 4 | 20 | 5% |
| Boo | 5 | 20 | 4% |
Scope of these numbers
These are the values reported by the linked wiki, including its summary calculations. A dash represents an empty cell in the source. Totals in the summary add values across positions; they are not single-race percentages. These figures are not a universal guarantee for every kart, mode or item-box situation.